EC外汇官网：白银暴动预警！38美元生死线告急，局势或引爆"核级行情"？

2025-08-18 21:46:33

周一（8月18日）欧市时段，现货白银价格小幅攀升至38.10美元/盎司附近。由于市场情绪趋于谨慎，投资者正密切关注在的会谈，银价获得温和买盘支撑。，多位及员国领人将共同参与此次会谈，商讨提出的冲突停战条件。

若冲突出现停火迹象，白银等避险资产或将承压。历史数据显示，在地缘紧张局势升级期间，白银通常表现强劲。

然而，市场对美联储9月降息的坚定预期持续为银价提供支撑。美联储降息通常利好白银等无息资产。

根据CME FedWatch工具显示，美联储9月降息概率高达82.6%。由于劳动力市场持续降温，交易员对美联储下月政策会议降息保持高度信心。

技术分析

日线图显示，银价已形成下降三角形技术形态，导致波动率显著收缩——该形态水平支撑位位于7月7日低点36.16美元附近，而下倾边界则连接7月23日高点39.53美元。

当前银价在20日指数移动平均线（EMA）37.90美元附近震荡，暗示短期将维持横盘走势。14日相对强弱指数（RSI）在40.00-60.00区间徘徊，反映市场参与者情绪犹豫不决。

关键支撑位看向6月24日低点35.28美元，上方重要阻力位则关注7月23日高点39.53美元附近。从技术层面看，现货白银再次在200周期简单移动平均线（SMA）附近获得有效支撑。该水平应被视为关键枢轴点——若明确下破此处将被视为空头交易者的关键触发点，并可能为更深度的下跌打开空间。

后续跌势可能推动现货白银下探37.50美元中段区域的下一相关支撑位，进而指向37.00美元关口。若跟进卖盘持续发力，在白银价格进一步跌穿36.00美元大关之前，月线摆动低点36.20美元区域或将面临考验。

与此同时，日线图上的震荡指标仍维持小幅上行走势。这一技术信号意味着，交易者在现货白银对布局激进空头头寸时需保持谨慎。不过需要指出的是，任何进一步上行都可能面临38.20-38.25美元区域的强阻力带。

若能持续突破该阻力区间，市场倾向或将转为看涨，推动现货白银上探38.50-38.55美元的中间阻力位，进而挑战数周高点38.75美元区域。若动能持续，银价可能进一步上攻39.00美元心理关口。现货白银在周一（8月18日）亚洲时段吸引部分逢低买盘介入，于37.80美元区域附近获得支撑。该贵金属价格回升至38.00美元关口上方，并在过去一小时刷新日内高点至38.10美元/盎司，涨幅约0.3%。

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全球市场观察：不容错过的动向

ABOUT THE COMPANY

DISCLAIMER

RISK DISCLOSURE

电话：+248 422 4099

传真：248 422 4099

邮箱：support@markets.com

地址：The registered address is Suite 4B, Global Village, Jivan’s Complex, Mont Fleuri, Mahe, Seychelles.