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ec外汇官网：美元空头暂歇！警惕今晚数据引爆新行情！
2025-05-27 19:59:41

周二（5月27日）欧时段，美元指数（DXY）交投于99.30附近，较前一交易日五周低点98.70反弹0.40%。此次回升主要受美收益率下行及市场对的观望情绪驱动。然而，美元仍处于关键均线系统下方，50日、100日及200日均线分别位于101.09、104.04和104.18，中长期空头格局未变。

基本面：多空因素交织


1. 收益率下行支撑短线反弹
10年期和30年期收益率分别跌至4.46%和4.97%，连续第三日走低。尽管收益率下行通常利空美元，但当前水平仍高于年初低点，部分缓解了美元抛压。值得注意的是，收益率曲线倒挂现象持续，反映市场对美长期经济前景的疑虑。

2. 信用评级下调余波未平
继知名评级机构将美信用评级从Aaa调降至Aa1后，"卖出美元"情绪仍在发酵。这是1917年以来首次遭遇此类下调，理由包括规模激增及预算僵局。历史数据显示，2011年和2023年类似下调均导致美元阶段性承压，本次影响或延续至三季度。

3. 不确定性升温
提出的"一揽子法案"即将进入参表决，该法案包含减税、扩大支出及提高上限等条款。根据预算办公室测算，法案可能增加38亿美元赤字。若通过，可能推升长端收益率并加剧可持续性担忧——这对美元构成"双刃剑"效应：短期或因经济预期改善获支撑，但中长期将放大风险。

4. 关税言论再扰市场
对欧及智能手机制造商的关税言论虽暂缓执行，但医药和半导体行业是否加税仍存变数。不可预测性已导致部分机构削减美元多头头寸。历史经验表明，单边关税行动往往引发贸易伙伴反制，最终拖累美元国际储备地位。

技术面：超卖修复与关键阻力


布林通道：日线级价格沿布林带下轨98.66反弹，但中轨100.14与上轨101.62构成强阻力区。
动能指标：MACD柱状图虽位于零轴下方（-0.135），但DIFF与DEA线黏合，显示下跌动能减弱；RSI从超卖区回升至42.49，尚未突破50中轴。
关键点位：短期支撑参考2025年低点97.90，若跌破可能下探97.40；上行需突破21日均线100.10及23.6%回撤位100.80方能扭转颓势。



机构观点与数据前瞻


某亚外汇策略团队指出："美元日线动能虽转弱，但RSI下跌速度放缓，日内不排除整理可能。"该行特别强调，若97.40支撑失守，可能触发程序化卖盘加速进场。

晚间需重点关注：
20:30耐用品订单（预期月率-1.2%）
22:00 联储制造业指数及谘商会消费者信心指数
本周后续事件中，FOMC会议纪要（5月28日）和核心PCE数据（5月30日）尤为关键。若PCE同比涨幅维持在2.8%上方，可能强化美联储"higher for longer"立场，为美元提供喘息之机。

展望：反弹空间受限 关注风险事件


短期来看，美元技术性修正可能延续，但三大因素将压制反弹高度：
1. 利差优势收窄：欧元区通胀意外上行令欧紧缩预期升温，削弱美元相对吸引力；
2. 避险需求分流：局势升级推动资金流向黄金和瑞郎；
3. 路径分化：若PCE数据温和，市场或提前计价美联储9月降息，导致美收益率曲线进一步平坦化。

中期而言，美元指数若无法收复101.60（200日均线附近），下行通道将保持完整。建议交易者密切关注97.90-100.80区间突破方向，并防范关税言论及法案表决引发的脉冲式波动。

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